Submutants of the new coronavirus are gaining momentum and are attracting attention as a potential threat from late fall to winter. The development threatens to reverse recent encouraging infection trends, and doctors are once again urging residents to get the latest vaccinations.
XEC, which was first detected in Germany, is also gaining attention in Western Europe, said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional director of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Like virtually all coronavirus strains that have emerged over the past few years, it is a member of the vast Omicron family and is a hybrid between two previously documented subvariants, KP.3 and KS.1.1. is.
Hudson said past surges “tended to move from Western Europe to the East Coast and then the West Coast of the United States.” “So if this becomes more and more prevalent as we head into the colder months, this is probably the variant that could potentially become established.”
Until now, XEC was not widely known nationally. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, KP.3.1.1, a descendant of the FLiRT subvariant, is the predominant strain circulating nationwide. In the two weeks ending September 14, KP.3.1.1 was estimated to account for 52.7% of coronavirus samples in the country.
In contrast, XEC is not yet tracked on the CDC's variant website. To qualify, subvariants must account for an estimated 1% or more of coronavirus cases nationwide.
But estimates suggest that XEC makes up 13% of coronavirus samples in Germany and 7% in the UK, said Dr. Peter Chin-hon, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
“We'll have to see how things go. If this goes on track, it'll probably be around November or December,” Hudson said. “As the weather definitely gets cooler and people start coming indoors more often, like after Halloween, that's when this is more likely to potentially take hold.”
The fall and winter resurgence, which has become a certainty since the emergence of COVID-19, comes after a prolonged summer outbreak that surprised doctors and experts with its intensity. Probably.
One silver lining, however, is that given the timing and strength of the summer coronavirus surge, it will likely be several months before many people are susceptible to reinfection, Chin-Hong said. said.
The peak of the coronavirus in California last winter (in terms of virus levels in sewage) was the first week of January.
After a surprisingly strong summer surge in cases, 22 states, including California, Texas and the District of Columbia, are now seeing declining or likely declining coronavirus cases, the CDC says. It was announced on Friday.
Twenty-two other states, including Florida and New York, have stable or uncertain coronavirus trends. The coronavirus is spreading or is predicted to be spreading in New Jersey, Washington and Massachusetts, and data were not available for the remaining three states.
Still, the number of new coronavirus infections remains relatively high in many parts of the country. The CDC announced Friday that coronavirus concentrations in wastewater remain considered “high” or “very high” in 40 states, including California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio. In six states, including New York, Michigan, Nevada and Hawaii, they were classified as “low” or “minimal.”
In Los Angeles County, coronavirus metrics are trending downward. In the latest available 10-day period ending September 7, coronavirus levels in wastewater were 56% of last winter's peak. This is down from the 10 days leading up to Aug. 24, when virus levels reached 75% of last winter's peak.
The number of coronavirus cases reported in the week ending September 15 was an average of 239 per day, a decrease of 31% from the previous week. The number of officially reported coronavirus cases is an understatement because it does not take into account tests done at home and the fact that many people are not tested at all when they are sick. It is evaluated. However, this trend is still useful in determining how the wave of coronavirus infections is progressing.
The percentage of emergency department visits classified as coronavirus-related in Los Angeles County was 2.8% for the week ending Sept. 15, down from 3.5% the week before.
However, the average number of deaths from COVID-19 is increasing. This is an expected development given the surge in illnesses and delays in reporting deaths. Los Angeles County reported an average of 4.9 coronavirus deaths per day in the week ending Aug. 27, up from 4.3 the week before.
Levels of the new coronavirus in wastewater in the San Francisco Bay Area are also calming. Santa Clara County Public Health said coronavirus levels were considered moderate in sewers in San Jose and Palo Alto, and low in Sunnyvale and Gilroy.
The rate of positive coronavirus tests is declining in California. In the week ending September 16, 8.9% of coronavirus tests (tests typically performed in health care facilities) reported were positive. The seasonal high was 12.8% in the week ending Aug. 10, according to the latest data.
It remains unclear how serious this winter's respiratory virus outbreak will be. The coronavirus isn't the only virus in town, as health officials are also keeping a close eye on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
The CDC predicted in late August that this year's fall/winter season would be similar to last year, or perhaps slightly less impactful. But the agency warned that its projections could be too optimistic if some assumptions are wrong, such as if fewer people than expected get vaccinated.
Chin-Hong said the situation could improve because people may still have some immunity to the influenza and respiratory syncytial virus that circulated in the past few winters. The rollout of vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus, which became available last year, has also been a big help.
Still, every winter comes with the risk of respiratory illness. For example, if a different type of influenza than the one contained in the vaccine becomes prevalent, the vaccination becomes less effective.
And the winter experience in parts of the southern hemisphere suggests there could be an active respiratory virus season here, Hudson said.
“We've had a very active and early flu season in Australia. We're already starting to see a few flu outbreaks here in the US, but this is pretty early,” Hudson said. .
The CDC recommends that everyone six months of age and older receive current COVID-19 and influenza vaccines. Vaccinations are widely available and the best time to get vaccinated is September and October, according to the CDC.
The CDC says people may consider waiting three months after contracting COVID-19 before getting the latest COVID-19 vaccine shot. But you can also choose to take it as soon as you feel better.
“I always have hope, and I think once people get vaccinated, and now is a great time to get a flu shot or a COVID-19 shot, we're definitely going to see another typical fall/winter surge.” But I think the jury is out on how bad that would be,” Hudson said.
Getting vaccinated “means fewer sick days and more time with loved ones. We are stronger when we are all protected from respiratory diseases.” said Dr. Tomás Aragon, director of the California Department of Public Health, in a statement.
Older people and people with weakened immune systems who have not been vaccinated in more than a year are at the highest risk of severe coronavirus infection and death, officials said.
According to the CDC, data shows that people who received the most recent version of a coronavirus vaccine last year were 54% less likely to become infected between mid-September and January 2023.
According to the CDC, influenza vaccines that are well-matched to circulating viruses can reduce the chance of getting sick enough to require medical attention by 40 to 60 percent.
There are needleless options for the flu vaccine, such as FluMist, which has been available as a nasal spray for non-pregnant women aged 2 to 49 for years. On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the at-home inoculation. Using FluMist – means adults can administer the vaccine to themselves or their children.
The at-home option still requires a prescription, but will be available starting in fall 2025.
The CDC says the new coronavirus remains a greater risk to public health than the flu. At least 55,000 deaths due to coronavirus infection have been reported nationwide since October 1st. It is estimated that at least 25,000 influenza deaths occurred during the same period. Estimates of influenza deaths are expected to be updated in October or November.
The CDC recommends RSV vaccination for all adults age 75 and older and adults ages 60 to 74 who are at high risk for severe disease. However, the RSV vaccine is not administered every year, so people who received the vaccine last year do not need a new vaccination at this time.
The RSV vaccine is also available to pregnant women between 32 and 36 weeks of pregnancy to protect the fetus. RSV antibodies are also available for infants and some young children.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that four free coronavirus tests will once again be available for households to receive by mail. You can register at covidtests.gov starting at the end of September.
In addition to getting vaccinated, California health officials urged people to take other steps to prevent getting sick and infecting others. These include staying home if you're sick, getting tested for coronavirus and influenza if you're sick, wearing a mask in indoor public spaces, washing your hands, covering your coughs and sneezes, and ventilating indoor spaces. This includes things like doing.
